www.mediafuturist.com
Gerd Leonhard
gerd@mediafuturist.com
www.mediafuturist.com
The Future of Social Media (# 1 / Friday):
From Commerce to People to... People Commerce?
Friday, June 20, 2008 1www.mediafuturist.com
Digital Media Sharing & the
Social Web:
We are only at the Beginning!
The rest of this
Iceberg will emerge
much quicker than
you may think
Friday, June 20, 2008 2www.mediafuturist.com
day, June 20, 2008 3Friwww.mediafuturist.com
Key Trends
1. All that can goes digital... very fast
2. All that can connect, will
3. Storage is becoming almost free
4. Bandwidth is becoming cheaper all the time
5. Most ÔcomputingÕ goes mobile
6. Devices become ÒMeÓ i.e. personal (invisible technology)
7. Media goes ÔsocialÕ
8. Content will Òfeel like freeÓ (i.e. bundled & flat-rated)
9. ÔOldÕ style Advertising & Marketing wonÕt work here!
Friday, June 20, 2008 4www.mediafuturist.com
TV versus the Internet
Friday, June 20, 2008 5www.mediafuturist.com
The Attention Surplus that was eaten
up by TV is now moving to the web
www.searchviews.com
Time and attention for the Web comes from the Cognitive
Surplus TV has been masking for 50 years (Clay Shirky)
Friday, June 20, 2008 6www.mediafuturist.com
Social Media tops the Charts
Friday, June 20, 2008 7www.mediafuturist.com
Massive Disruption by
The People Formerly Known as Consumers
Friday, June 20, 2008 8www.mediafuturist.com
Thirty-eight percent of the video streamed on the Web
http://www.forbes.com/technology/forbes/2008/0616/050.html
now comes from YouTube (ComScore)
YouTube will upload 600 years' worth of video this year
10 hours of video uploaded every 10 seconds
An ad on the YouTube home page now costs $175,000 a
day
Friday, June 20, 2008 9Social Networks: The new Radio +TV www.mediafuturist.com
Friendster Facebook Myspace Cyworld Mixi QQ... are
Friday, June 20, 2008 BROADCASTERS 10www.mediafuturist.com
Source:
Don Tapscott
Wikinomics
Blog
Friday, June 20, 2008 11www.mediafuturist.com
Friday, June 20, 2008 12www.mediafuturist.com
(Co)Creating -Remixing - Cutting & Pasting -
Bookmarking - Sharing - Connecting .... Consuming?
Friday, June 20, 2008 13www.mediafuturist.com
Friday, June 20, 2008 14www.mediafuturist.com
First, letÕs forget the word ÔConsumer Õ
¥ItÕs a 2-way conversation now!
¥ Happy users will now do some of the marketing for you
Interested users now supply ideas and ÔcontentÕ, too: engaged
¥
users now provide images, videos, text, music...
Loyal users now want to have conversations with you
¥
The Internet is finally becoming a ÔsocialÕ and cultural web
¥
where Brands that influence Culture do better
In 2-3 years, there will be no more offline or online
¥
The kids are now the Authorities!
¥
Friday, June 20, 2008 15www.mediafuturist.com
Everything is switching to PULL
Friday, June 20, 2008 16www.mediafuturist.com
Having Pull means: Connect. Share. Commune.
Friday, June 20, 2008 17www.mediafuturist.com
Not
But
Trust
Friday, June 20, 2008 18www.mediafuturist.com
Now, what IS Content?
Videos, Audio, Music, Text, Images...
and now:
The DATA that is around it i.e
Meta Content
Friday, June 20, 2008 19www.mediafuturist.com
The Users become content, too...
Friday, June 20, 2008 20www.mediafuturist.com
Friday, June 20, 2008 21www.mediafuturist.com
The key to the Future of Advertising
Explicit Permission to use Attention Data &
Clickstream-Data in return for Content (Media &
Entertainment) and Services
Friday, June 20, 2008 22www.mediafuturist.com
Aggregation is a huge opportunity
Friday, June 20, 2008 23www.mediafuturist.com
So letÕs talk about Control
Friday, June 20, 2008 24www.mediafuturist.com
Control
ÒChoice not ControlÓ
Friday, June 20, 2008 25www.mediafuturist.com
We urgently need to get used to
Having Less Control
Friday, June 20, 2008 26

sationConver

itMer

USTTRwww.mediafuturist.com
Goodbye ÔControlÕ
Friday, June 20, 2008 27www.mediafuturist.com
You canÕt force total control anymore
A.P. vice president Jim Kennedy says they will issue guidelines telling
bloggers what is acceptable and what isn¼t, over and above what the law
says is acceptable. They will Òattempt to deÞne clear standards as
to how much of its articles and broadcasts bloggers and Web
sites can excerpt without infringing on The A.P.¼s copyright.Ó
The A.P. doesn¼t get to make it¼s own rules around how its content is used,
if those rules are stricter than the law allows. So even thought they say
they are making these new guidelines in the spirit of cooperation, it¼s clear
that, like the RIAA and MPAA, they are trying to claw their way to a set of
property rights that don¼t exist today and that they are not legally entitled
to. So here¼s our new policy on A.P. stories: they don¼t exist. We don¼t
see them, we don¼t quote them, we don¼t link to them. They¼re banned
until they abandon this new strategy
Friday, June 20, 2008 28www.mediafuturist.com
Friday, June 20, 2008 29www.mediafuturist.com
The New York Times Example
The paid wall went down - traffic went up. And then?
Openness forces you to be more inventive
Friday, June 20, 2008 30www.mediafuturist.com
Your opportunity as a Brand
Provide ÒChoiceÓ - not Control
Provide Real Meaning & Context - not sheer Volume
Provide Sharing Platforms - not Walls
Friday, June 20, 2008 31www.mediafuturist.com
Many traditional roles will be up for discussion
Friday, June 20, 2008 32www.mediafuturist.com
And a lot will depend....Culture ... UI!
Friday, June 20, 2008 33www.mediafuturist.com
Some to-doÕs...
Prepare for the digital flood is coming - now
¥
is a good time to stake out your role
Pretend to be 16 again - dive in! Get wet
¥
before learning how to swim.
Reinvent and disrupt your company before
¥
you are re-invented by others
If you own content: participate or be
¥
participated
Friday, June 20, 2008 34www.mediafuturist.com
4.5 Billion next year.
Friday, June 20, 2008 35www.mediafuturist.com
The (smart) phone is the first real
personal medium
Friday, June 20, 2008 36www.mediafuturist.com
A real concern: Privacy
Friday, June 20, 2008 37www.mediafuturist.com
Because the Future of Advertising is solidly dependent
on getting real information from the Users- voluntarily
Friday, June 20, 2008 38www.mediafuturist.com
Imagine:
You could find people that make a 95% match for your
product or service, and that have agreed to pay attention
They would be interested in hearing from you, and open to
discussing your product or service
They would tell others about your product and transport
your message onward, on your behalf
Markets could be Conversations!
Friday, June 20, 2008 39www.mediafuturist.com
W e a r e h e a d i n g i n t o a
Broadband Culture
Friday, June 20, 2008 40www.mediafuturist.com
Brands that influence Culture get Attention
Friday, June 20, 2008 41www.mediafuturist.com
Media...
B r o a d ba n d
Narrowband
Linear Interactive
B
O
Monologs Conversations
T
H
Advertising
Ads = Content
will
Professional Creators User & ÔUsatorÕ Content
C
O
Pay with cash Pay with attention
-
E
X
Push Marketing Pull & Attract by Merit
I
S
Own & restrict Share
T
Friday, June 20, 2008 42www.mediafuturist.com
Redefining ÔAdvertisingÕ
¥ Offline and in traditional media, people are skipping and
avoiding ads everywhere (TV); print ad reach is declining,
radio stagnates
Online, peopleÕs attention is very very hard to get (and getting
¥
worse) ~ the Attention Deficit Trend is a real challenge
The web is essentially forcing us to reinvent advertising
¥
We must can come up with Ads that provide VALUE,
¥
RELEVANCE, CONTEXT
Friday, June 20, 2008 43www.mediafuturist.com
Push Mar keting is dying.
Ever ything is conver ting
to Pull.
Friday, June 20, 2008 44Marketing 2.0: Listen - Broadcast - Pull www.mediafuturist.com
1
3
2
Friday, June 20, 2008 45www.mediafuturist.com
Imagine: an instant Micro Feed to the
ÔPeople formerly known as ConsumersÕ
twitter.com/gleonhard twitter.com/dailywisdoms
Friday, June 20, 2008 46www.mediafuturist.com
There are major issues such as Privacy... but:
The potential evils of an Open Network - of ÔToo
Much FreedomÕ - will always pale beside those of
a Closed, Controlled and Authoritarian Network
Friday, June 20, 2008 47www.mediafuturist.com
Creativity Is The Most
Powerful Force [In Business]
*DDB
Thanks for listening!
Gerd Leonhard
gerd@mediafuturist.com
www.mediafuturist.com
Friday, June 20, 2008 48